【昨日盤勢】：
中國10/9宣佈稀土管制升級到所有稀土元素，川普馬上反擊，對中國課100%關稅，造成上週五美股四大指數崩跌。川普政府禮拜天表示願意和中國達成協議，中方則說明稀土並非全面禁止出口，緩解新一波貿易緊張。禮拜一台股早盤因為程式單加上情緒不穩定，一開盤就跳空下跌超過800點，但隨後在台積電跌幅收斂及台達電創新高的帶動下，指數從低點拉回來守住十日均線。資金轉移到傳產避險，如綠能、紙業等；雖然電子股普遍下跌，但基本面好的績優股仍受投資人青睞。在權值股方面，台積電下跌1.73%，鴻海下跌3.83%，聯發科下跌2.23%，廣達下跌1.17%，而台達電則上漲3.10%。強勢股票包括士紙、十銓、群翊、金寶、永崴投控和森崴能源等，共有28檔漲停；宇瞻、全訊、緯軟等漲幅超過6%；弱勢股票如中信中國50正2則大約下降了10%；新日興和倚強科等共計5檔股票也遭遇了漲停板壓力；其他如上品、華星光和茂矽的個別股票都出現7%以上的下降幅度。最後，加權指數收於26923.42點，下滑378.50點，而成交量為5839.69億元。觀察整體市場變化，各類主要類別皆呈現下降趨勢，其中電子類降1.58%、傳產降0.54%、金融降1.08%。次族群表現較佳的是生醫（+1.32%）、綠能環保（+1.04%）以及造紙（+1%）。
【資金動向】：
三大法人合計賣超678億4700萬元。其中外資賣超563億1300萬元，投信賣超7億2800萬元，自營商賣超108億0700萬元。外資買進最多的是聯電、仁寶、力積電等等，而賣出的前五名是南亞科與友達等公司。同時，在融券方面減少了24億4600萬融券餘額至28316萬700張。此外外資在期貨部位增加4309口空單，目前淨空單部位33061口。而借券部分則售出192億6700萬元。
【今日盤勢分析】：
美中雙方都釋放出維持談判意願的信息，有助於減輕雙邊關係惡化的擔憂。目前，美國政府已經進入第二週關門狀態，使得市場面臨一定的不確定性，但預期本周可能會結束這種局面。本周市場焦點將轉向FED主席鮑爾週二演講及週四(10/16)台積法說會。在未來展望中：
- 第一：
- OpenAI與博通簽署多年合作協議以生產訂製晶片及網路設備。不過博通澄清所謂「神祕百億元客戶」並非OpenAI。然而此合作顯示AI基礎設施需求快速增長，也鞏固博通在AI晶片市場地位。
- 第二：
- 威剛指出CSP剛性需求導致DDR4, DDR5, NAND Flash同步缺貨情況，其中NAND Flash可望缺貨至明年初。
- 第三：
- 技術層面看，相較於之前富台期走勢，本次量增開低走高表現優於預期，在多頭格局尚未破壞情況之下注重觀察貿易談判結果及ADR走向。
- 第四： 當前盤面聚焦軍工、生技、高速傳輸半導體先進製程相關材料升級或替代概念族群，包括亞航士紙永崴投控十銓映泰泰福-KY緯軟等表現亮眼。..>
. />.. />
.. />.
/supply chain complexity makes SSD substitution effect more pronounced and HDD manufacturers are now operating on a “made-to-order” basis which further amplifies NAND demand.
/supply chain complexity makes SSD substitution effect more pronounced and HDD manufacturers are now operating on a “made-to-order” basis which further amplifies NAND demand.
– Technical analysis shows that compared to last Friday’s FTSE Taiwan index performance, Monday’s increased volume with lower opening and higher closing was better than expected under the leadership of TSMC and Delta Electronics, narrowing the decline to only 139%. Although indicators such as daily KD RSI MACD entered consolidation phase strong close above ten-day moving average suggests non-economic correction short-term overbought deviation adjustment medium-long term bullish pattern remains intact continue observing US-China trade negotiations TSMC ADR trends regarded as momentum indicators predicting high-level fluctuations in Taiwan stocks short-term unchanged medium-long term structure stable.
– Market funds focus on military industry paper green energy environmental protection memory September revenue outperforming stocks including Asia Aviation Shih Paper Everlight Investment Control Ten Power Biostar Taifook-KY Weisoft etc perform strongly.
“Investors return to risk assets due to softened attitudes from both sides of the US-China trade dispute Global eight major CSP capital expenditures hit record highs this year AI infrastructure demands explosive growth recently American tech giants successively launch integrated AI sovereignty plans perpetuating AI investment perpetual motion machine advancement TSMC will be biggest winner Thursday earnings call expected positive signals Additionally National Security Fund has not yet exited anticipate index high-level fluctuations sector rotation healthy operation strategy recommended layout large-cap blue-chip stocks with performance themes small-medium-sized stock focus groups include AI concept stocks high-speed transmission semiconductor advanced process related material upgrade or alternative concept price increase concept Apple concept military industry biotechnology etc.”
